Prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan

While war rages in the Middle East or in Ukraine over claims to ancestral lands, the South Caucasus is a field of discord between Turkic and Armenian populations. This region has been crossed by serious ethnic and geopolitical events since the beginning of the 20th century. Today, Armenia is perceived as an obstacle to the free movement of Azeri populations towards the exclave of Nakhichevan and more broadly between the Baku and Ankara axis. Negotiations to find a compromise are underway to stabilize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Origins of the conflict

At the end of the First World War, Armenia, very weakened, won three battles¹ against Turkey, which recognized Armenian independence on June 4, 1918 with the Treaty of Batum. Armenian territory represented only 10,000 km² around Yerevan. By refusing the Treaty of Sèvres, Mustafa Kemal took up arms again against Armenia between September and December 1920. Mustafa Kemal’s rapprochement with the Bolsheviks fixed the destiny of Armenia with the Treaty of Alexandropol, which ended the Armenian-Turkish war. The treaty made Armenia renounce its borders drawn by the Treaty of Sèvres in favor of the Bolsheviks. Armenia thus became a small republic of the USSR of less than 30,000 km². It was at this time that the provinces of Nakhichevan and Nagorno-Karabakh were assigned to the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In September 1991, Armenia regained its independence after the collapse of the Soviet bloc. Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan became sources of tension with Azerbaijan. Although Nagorno-Karabakh is populated by 80% Armenians, Azerbaijan still claims this territory. During the last war in September 2023, Azerbaijan regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, displacing around 70,000 Armenians. The other point of tension between the two countries now lies around the Nakhichevan region. This region is an exclave of Azerbaijan, which claims territorial continuity with its province.

1Battles of Sardarapat, Bach Abaran and Karakilisa.

Search for a Peace Solution

The search for a peace solution to reconnect the logistics axes between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan province is accepted by all due to the ceasefire agreement of November 2020. However, the solutions proposed by Azerbaijan and Armenia are different in terms of their implementation.

The Zangazur corridor

Azerbaijan’s solution is based on a corridor concept between the Zangilan region and Nakhchivan. This axis would allow unhindered movement to Nakhchivan without border guards. In the 2020 ceasefire agreements, it is clearly written that a transport connection must be established between the two regions, but the conditions of such a corridor are not specified. With the establishment of a kind of no man’s land, Armenia’s sovereignty would be compromised. In addition, this corridor would hinder the north-south axis of Armenian territory.

The Crossroads of Peace

The Crossroads of Peace is an expanded concept of the Zangazur corridor that respects Armenia’s sovereignty. The project provides for the connection of a range of logistics axes: railways, roads, electric cables, pipelines and gas pipelines between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also between Armenia and Turkey. In addition, the Crossroads of Peace provides for the development of north-south communication routes. Armenia is ready to implement the project while ensuring the security of connections as stipulated in Article 9 of the peace agreement. However, the project needs partners because its cost is high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eysnq8ImQak

Peace seems close given the resumption of dialogue. The realization of the Armenian Crossroads of Peace project would boost the economy of the entire region and Armenia would become the logistics hub of the region. Will Turkey and Azerbaijan grant such an opportunity to Armenia?